Mega Millions: Rigged or Fair? A Statistical Audit Report

(Editor’s note: This report is becoming a living document. We have revised some of the statistically inaccurate claims made in previous versions of the post thanks to the invaluable insights of the reddit community in r/AskStatistics. We are committed to transparency and will continuously refine our analysis based on new draw data and valuable feedback from the data science and statistics communities. Our goal is to provide the most robust and accurate audit possible).

At Lucky Picks, our goal is to provide data-driven lottery analysis. Using our “Fairness Score” engine, we run a series of statistical tests on historical lottery data to check for deviations from randomness.

This report details our findings for the Mega Millions lottery, based on an analysis of all 850 draws since the last rule change in October 2017.

Mega Millions 2025 Update — Is It Fair?

A Quick Look at the Latest Statistical Audit

Updated: December 18, 2025

Are the Mega Millions numbers truly random? A refreshed statistical analysis says: yes.

We regularly audit major lottery draws to see whether the outcomes behave like a fair random process. Today we’re updating our assessment of Mega Millions based on the latest data and upgraded methodology.

🔍 Short Answer:
Mega Millions scores 99/100 on our Fairness Score — indicating no statistically meaningful deviations from expected random behavior.
You can view the full detailed audit here:
👉 Mega Millions Fairness Audit — Full Report
https://luckypicks.io/research/statistical-fairness/mega-millions-fairness-audit/

What’s New in This Update

We’ve improved our analysis engine to be more statistically sound and cautious:

✔ We now require a deviation to be both statistically significant and practically meaningful before calling it noteworthy.
✔ We adjust for multiple comparisons where many pattern tests are run simultaneously.
✔ We suppress conclusions when data is too sparse to support reliable tests.
✔ We report descriptive observations separately from score-impacting findings.

These changes help prevent overinterpretation of random noise — a frequent pitfall in lottery data analysis.

Because of these upgrades, earlier impressions of minor “biases” (e.g., toward low number combinations) no longer qualify as meaningful under the revised standards.

What the Fairness Score Tells You

The Fairness Score summarizes three dimensions:

  • Frequency: Are numbers drawn in proportion to their expected probabilities?
  • Temporal: Do draw outcomes correlate with time (day of week, month of year)?
  • Patterns: Do specific combination types occur more often than they should?

In the latest Mega Millions audit:

✅ Frequency: No statistically meaningful deviation
✅ Temporal: Draw timing appears uniform
✅ Patterns: No pattern is robustly inconsistent with randomness
🎯 Overall Fairness Score: 99 / 100 — Highly Trustworthy

These results are based on 850 draws from October 31, 2017 through December 18, 2025.

For the full statistical breakdown and interpretations, see the full report (linked above).

What This Does and Does Not Mean

This audit does mean:

  • The draws behave like a fair random process in statistical tests.
  • No systematic structure has been detected that would suggest non-randomness at scale.
  • You can have confidence that past results don’t show persistent bias.

This audit does not mean:

  • The lottery is immune to all forms of manipulation.
  • Rare or targeted issues (e.g., isolated draw anomalies from procedural breaches) would necessarily be detected by statistical analysis.
  • Any particular number or strategy gives you an edge.

Statistical auditing is powerful for detecting systemic deviations — but it cannot detect extremely rare, targeted manipulations that leave little trace in aggregate data.

Ongoing and Future Updates

This post and the full audit are living documents.
As new draws occur or methodology evolves, we will update both the summary and the full audit report.
You can always find the latest version here:

👉 https://luckypicks.io/research/statistical-fairness/mega-millions-fairness-audit/

For Responsible Play

Lotteries are designed so that each draw is random and independent.
Even thorough statistical checks cannot improve your chance of winning — they can only help you assess whether the draw mechanism behaves as expected.