Mega Millions: Rigged or Fair? A Statistical Audit Report

(Editor’s note: This report is becoming a living document. We have revised some of the statistically inaccurate claims made in previous versions of the post thanks to the invaluable insights of the reddit community in r/AskStatistics. We are committed to transparency and will continuously refine our analysis based on new draw data and valuable feedback from the data science and statistics communities. Our goal is to provide the most robust and accurate audit possible).

At Lucky Picks, our goal is to provide data-driven lottery analysis. Using our “Fairness Score” engine, we run a series of statistical tests on historical lottery data to check for deviations from randomness.

This report details our findings for the Mega Millions lottery, based on an analysis of all 812 draws since the last rule change in October 2017.

Is Mega Millions Fair?

Overall, as of 08/09/2025, the Mega Millions game earns a Fairness Score of 88 out of 100.

Our analysis confirms two key points:

1. The individual numbers are drawn randomly. The overall frequency of each number is consistent with what’s expected in a fair, random draw.
2. There is no temporal bias. The draws are statistically consistent across all days of the week and month.

However, our analysis did identify a persistent statistical bias in the types of combinations that are drawn.

The Anomaly: A Bias Towards Low Numbers

The “Pattern Bias” test for Mega Millions returned a low score of 52/100. This is driven by a significant anomaly in the High/Low number distribution of winning combinations.

The data shows:

• Combinations with all low numbers (0 High - 5 Low) have appeared more often than predicted by statistical odds.
• Conversely, combinations with all high numbers (5 High - 0 Low) have appeared less often than they should.

This is a persistent pattern, found in both the overall historical data and in a more recent window of the last 500 draws.

Statistically, this deviation has a p-value of 0.026 which means that if the draws were truly random, we would expect to see a deviation this large or larger only 2.6% of the time due to pure chance.

The Strategic Insight

While it may seem like a significant statistical threshold, it should be taken in a broader context of validating the hypothesis that the draw is random and fair.

In laymen terms, this is still an interesting outlier and statistical investigation quirk that could be used to justify paying attention with more hypothesis or strategic approaches.

It’s not a final judgement of whether the initial hypothesis (The lottery is fair) is invalid.

A quick look at the number’s distribution highlights this subtle potential pattern bias more clearly.

This finding challenges the common strategy of playing numbers above 31 to avoid splitting jackpots with players who use birth dates. The historical data for Mega Millions shows a clear, long-term bias toward combinations of lower numbers.

Again, this is not evidence of fraud, but it can be an actionable insight. A player can either:

1. Play Into the Bias: Focus on combinations with a majority of low numbers to align with the historical trend.
2. Play Against the Bias: Focus on combinations with a majority of high numbers, betting on a long-term correction to the statistical average.

This analysis provides a data-driven edge, allowing you to make strategic choices based on a transparent audit of the game itself.

To see the Fairness Score for your favorite lottery, download the Lucky Picks app.