Powerball and Mega Millions are the biggest lottery jackpots on the planet. If you are dreaming of winning really big and radically transform your life, look no further than those two.
Players from countries across the globe flock to play these US based lottery games for the life-altering sums routinely topping hundreds of millions. Powerball has set world records with its $2.04 billion and most recently $1.73 billion jackpot. Mega Millions is not far behind, having recently awarded a $1.58 billion jackpot.
Once you move past the talk of insanely lucky rich overnight winners, you may notice more similarities between these heavy hitters. In both games, the rules ask you to choose 5 random base numbers, plus 1 additional bonus number. The range to choose the numbers from is almost identical, with 1-69 for the 5 base numbers + 1-26 for the Powerball, and 1-70 for the 5 base numbers + 1-25 for the Mega Ball.
Because they are so similar, a lot of people play the same numbers in both lotteries. But focusing on only one can help you both maximize your chances to win, and keep an eye on your budget.
So, which lottery has the best odds and payouts and deserver more of your attention? Let’s dive in and compare the key factors between Powerball and Mega Millions, so you can then decide the best way to play your lucky numbers!
Overall Odds
First, we looked at the odds of winning for the two lotteries, as shown in the table below.
| Prize | Powerball | Mega Millions |
|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (5 Matches + Bonus) | 1 in 292 million | 1 in 302 million |
| 5 Matches | 1 in 11 million | 1 in 12 million |
| 4 Matches + PB/Mega Ball | 1 in 913K | 1 in 931K |
| 4 Matches | 1 in 36K | 1 in 38K |
| 3 Matches + PB/Mega Ball | 1 in 14K | 1 in 14K |
| 3 Matches | 1 in 580 | 1 in 606 |
| 2 Matches + PB/Mega Ball | 1 in 702 | 1 in 693 |
| 1 Match + PB/Mega Ball | 1 in 92 | 1 in 89 |
| PB/Mega Ball only | 1 in 39 | 1 in 37 |
Scoring Powerball’s top prize of hitting all 5 numbers plus the Powerball is a measly 1 in 292 million. Mega Millions doesn’t offer much better chances at 1 in 302 million. Suffice to say, both deliver long-shot odds, but Mega Millions has slightly tougher chances at the jackpot prize tier. And this is true too for the other secondary prizes: The odds for Powerball are a bit better than the odds of Mega Millions, except for the last three lower tier prizes.
The data is clear. For any of the smaller wins from $2 to $10, your chances are more favorable with Mega Millions. For anything more than that, Powerball is your better bet.
Winner: Powerball
Jackpots
Next we looked at the Jackpot prize amount in the past 10 draws for both lotteries.
| Powerball | Mega Millions |
|---|---|
2023-10-18$49 million | 2023-10-20$91 million |
2023-10-16$34 million | 2023-10-17$69 million |
2023-10-14$20 million | 2023-10-13$48 million |
2023-10-11$1.765 billion | 2023-10-10$20 million |
2023-10-09$1.55 billion | 2023-10-06$360 million |
2023-10-07$1.4 billion | 2023-10-03$315 million |
2023-10-04$1.2 billion | 2023-09-29$267 million |
2023-10-02$1.04 billion | 2023-09-26$230 million |
2023-09-30$960 million | 2023-09-22$205 million |
2023-09-27$850 million | 2023-09-19$183 million |
Based on the data, Powerball tends to grow bigger and faster.
This is not a coincidence: there are 3 Powerball draws every week, vs. 2 Mega Millions draws. And every time a jackpot is not claimed, it increases significantly, which gives the advantage to Powerball.
For most of its last 10 jackpots, Powerball eclipsed Mega Millions. Including coming up with the second best world record at $1.765 billion.
Mega Millions had scored some mega jackpots near $1 billion as well in the past. But overall, Powerball has the edge with bigger jackpots.
Winner: Powerball
Total Payouts
Finally, we looked at the total payouts in the past 10 draws for both lotteries. Beyond lottery headlines for Mega Millions & Powerball Jackpot, the payouts are actual cash amounts that people have won (including secondary prizes) and gives an idea of the amount that has been rewarded to players.
| Powerball | Mega Millions |
|---|---|
2023-10-18$6.39 million | 2023-10-20$3.84 million |
2023-10-16$5.03 million | 2023-10-17$3.28 million |
2023-10-14$6.55 million | 2023-10-13$3.89 million |
2023-10-11$1.81 billion | 2023-10-10$6.68 million |
2023-10-09$36.40 million | 2023-10-06$377.89 million |
2023-10-07$50.36 million | 2023-10-03$5.73 million |
2023-10-04$35.62 million | 2023-09-29$7.51 million |
2023-10-02$25.43 million | 2023-09-26$10.19 million |
2023-09-30$26.52 million | 2023-09-22$4.69 million |
2023-09-27$18.41 million | 2023-09-19$4.22 million |
Powerball pays out larger total sums across all prize tiers, especially when it hits the massive jackpots.
Its total payouts consistently surpass Mega Millions for similar sized prizes.
Winner: Powerball
The Verdict
In all the categories we looked, Powerball is coming up on top. It has the better odds to win the Jackpot, the biggest Jackpot, and the better payouts.
Does it mean that you should never play Mega Millions again?
Not necessarily. It may depends on the timing of your play. Timing can affect how statistically likely a lottery number patterns is to appear.
Take the “Endings” pattern (group of numbers ending with the same digit) for example. Because the statistically most likely pattern (2 – 1 – 1- 1) has appeared a lot less in the last 100 draws of Mega Millions, it is more likely to appear in the next Mega Millions draw than in the next Powerball draw.
So if you have optimized your lucky picks for that pattern, it may be a statistically better bet to play Mega Millions at this moment in time.
You can find more information about these patterns in our Lottery Numbers Generator App.
Also, Mega Millions may simply have a huge jackpot going on while Powerball jackpot is still ramping up.
It has happened in the past and will probably happen again.
During these times, it may be more interesting to play Mega Millions if you want to have a shot at winning a bigger jackpot.
At the end of the day, it also depends on your budget and on your personal preference. For all the math and statistics of the world, playing lottery is ultimately a game.
Luck and fun should still be the final deciding factor in your decisions, as long as you are playing responsibly. So, pick your pleasure or play both! And may the odds always be in your favor!