Pick 4 – NC Payouts, Straight vs. Box Odds & Value
Last updated: October 25, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
Fixed $5,000 Straight top prize (1 in 10,000 odds) · 53% average return every draw.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- -$0.47 Per $1 ticket
The estimated Pick 4 – NC jackpot for Sunday’s draw is $5,000, with a cash option of $5,000 and an estimated $3,150 after federal taxes.
The cash expected value is -$0.47 per $1 ticket before split risk. Fixed $5,000 Straight top prize (1 in 10,000 odds) · 53% average return every draw.
Data & model basis: official Pick 4 – NC data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
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Facts, sources & assumptions
Why trust this Pick 4 – NC breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Pick 4 – NC Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
What this means
Why Pick 4 – NC returns 53% on every draw
Unlike rollover games where expected value depends on the jackpot size, Pick 4 – NC pays fixed cash prizes every Midday and Evening drawing. A $1 Straight pays $5,000 at 1 in 10,000 odds (50¢ expected return per $1). Front and Back Pairs pay $50 at 1 in 100 odds (also 50¢ per $1).
Basis: Official fixed prize schedule · $1 base wager · no annuity discount
What this means
Trading payout size for hit frequency
A Box bet covers every permutation of your 4 digits on a single $1 ticket. For all-distinct digits, that improves hit odds to 1 in 417 (24-Way) for a $200 payout. Use our Rundown & Mirror Workstation to filter combinations and eliminate duplicate Box lines before you play.
Basis: 4-digit ordered combinatorics · Straight, Box, and Pair tiers
Pick 4 – NC Fixed Payouts, Straight vs. Box Odds & Return Breakdown
Oct 25, 2026
| Top Straight Prize ($1 Base) | $5,000 Fixed |
|---|---|
| Box & Pair Tiers ($1 Base Wager) | 24-Way Box $200 · 12-Way Box $400 · Pair $50 |
| Top Straight Odds | 1 in 10,000 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | -$0.47 per ticket |
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Pick 4 – NC Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | -$0.47 | Prizes are paid directly in cash (before taxes). |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$0.47 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal tax. |
Note: State taxes are not included and will further reduce the Net EV depending on where you live.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 7 number-match categories, multiply the payout by its probability (for example, jackpot divided by 10,000). Multiplier variants belong to the same match category and must be weighted, not counted as additional chances.
2
Sum probability-weighted payouts: We use the jackpot’s published cash value, or the clearly labeled cash estimate when no current cash value is published.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $1.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (-$0.47).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (-$0.47) uses the published cash prizes before taxes (there is no annuity or lump-sum discount). The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$0.47) shown above accounts for federal taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Fixed prizes: the best play returns about 53¢ per $1 on average, every draw.
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$0.47, meaning you can expect to lose about 0.47 on average for every ticket.
Because Pick 4 – NC has fixed prizes that do not roll over, the expected value stays constant from draw to draw.
Pick 4 – NC payout chart
What each Pick 4 – NC bet type pays ($1 base wager)
Select Straight, Box, Straight/Box, or Pair below to compare fixed cash payouts, exact combinatoric odds, and retail claim rules.
If your numbers come up Box (4-way) · 1 in 2,500 per line
Fixed cash payouts by bet type. Prizes at or below $5,000 have no automatic federal withholding at claim.
Box (4-way) pays $1,200 at 1 in 2,500 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Pick 4 – NC prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (Straight) | $5,000 | 1 in 10,000 | 6,931 19 yrs at one line per draw |
$6,931.13 | 72% |
| Box (4-way) | $1,200 | 1 in 2,500 | 1,733 5 yrs at one line per draw |
$1,732.52 | 69% |
| Box (6-way) | $800 | 1 in 1,667 | 1,155 3 yrs at one line per draw |
$1,155.13 | 69% |
| Box (12-way) | $400 | 1 in 833 | 577 2 yrs at one line per draw |
$577.04 | 69% |
| Box (24-way) | $200 | 1 in 417 | 289 41 wk at one line per draw |
$288.70 | 69% |
| Front Pair | $50 | 1 in 100 | 69 10 wk at one line per draw |
$68.97 | 72% |
| Back Pair | $50 | 1 in 100 | 69 10 wk at one line per draw |
$68.97 | 72% |
“Coin-flip shot” models independent chances; same-draw line overlap can change the exact probability. It is not the EV break-even threshold. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current advertised amount before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Free tickets are not cash.
For every prize’s payout and odds, see the Pick 4 – NC payout charts and how to win. The guide also covers the modeled hit points and what strategies can and cannot change.
Pick 4 – NC Liability Limits & Overplayed Combinations (Triples / Dates)
Unlike multi-state rollover games, Pick 4 – NC pays fixed prizes per dollar wagered ($5,000 Straight on a $1 play) in every Midday and Evening drawing. Normal payouts do not shrink when multiple players hit the same combination.
However, state lotteries enforce draw-level liability caps (or “stop-sale” limits) on heavily overplayed combinations — most notably repeating Triples/Quads (0000, 1111, 7777), sequential runs (1-2-3-4), and calendar/year picks (19xx, 20xx). Avoiding crowded triple and date combinations protects you from sold-out numbers or liability-cap reductions.
In our walk-forward strategy monitor, Digit Sum Filter (Core Bell Curve) currently leads with +6.50% hit-rate lift versus random across 100 draws. Treat that as historical workout context rather than a prediction of the next draw.
Pick 4 – NC Bet Type EV & Hit-Frequency Comparison ($1 Wager)
Because Pick 4 – NC is a fixed-payout 4-digit game rather than a rolling jackpot lottery, your strategic decision is choosing the right trade-off between hit frequency and payout size:
| Bet Type ($1 Base) | Example | Hit Odds | Fixed Prize | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight (Exact Order) | 1-4-7-9 | 1 in 10,000 | $5,000 | $0.50 (50.0%) |
| 24-Way Box (4 Distinct Digits) | 1-4-7-9 (any order) | 1 in 417 | $200 | $0.48 (48.0%) |
| 12-Way Box (1 Pair + 2 Singles) | 4-4-7-9 (any order) | 1 in 833 | $400 | $0.48 (48.0%) |
| 6-Way Box (Two Pairs) | 4-4-9-9 (any order) | 1 in 1,667 | $800 | $0.48 (48.0%) |
| 4-Way Box (3 Identical + 1 Single) | 4-4-4-9 (any order) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,200 | $0.48 (48.0%) |
| Front Pair / Back Pair | 1-4-X-X / X-X-7-9 | 1 in 100 | $50 | $0.50 (50.0%) |
Pick 4 – NC Numbers Drawn Last Night
Oct 24, 2026
Winning Numbers
Evening
Daytime
| Top Straight Prize ($1 Base) | $5,000 Fixed |
| Box & Pair Tiers ($1 base) | 24-Way Box $200 · 12-Way Box $400 · Pair $50 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Use the full historical audit for a stronger fairness read than one draw can provide.
Full audit
100/100
Highly Trustworthy • 5,000 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Use the full audit for the historical test.
See the full Pick 4 – NC fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your bet structure & Box deduplication — not the draw odds
Every ordered Pick 4 – NC combination has the same probability in a single draw. Strategy helps you choose between Straight, 3-Way/6-Way Box, and $50 Front/Back Pair plays — and prevents overpaying for duplicate Box permutations.
Top positional workout
Digit Sum Filter (Core Bell Curve)
+6.5% recent position-hit difference vs. baseline · QUIET
Use the interactive rundown, mirror, and sum workstation to organize your play.
Open the Pick 4 – NC Rundown WorkstationFAQ
What is the top Straight prize and Box payout for Pick 4 – NC?
A $1 Straight wager on Pick 4 – NC pays a fixed $5,000 top prize (1 in 10,000 odds). A $1 Box wager pays $200 on a 24-Way Single or $400 on a 12-Way Double, and Front or Back Pair plays pay $50 at 1 in 100 odds.
What are the Pick 4 – NC Straight, Box, and Pair odds?
In Pick 4 – NC, your odds depend on the bet type you choose: Straight odds are 1 in 10,000 ($5,000 on $1), all-distinct Box odds are 1 in 417 (24-Way Box, $200 prize), single-repeat Box odds are 1 in 833 (12-Way Box, $400 prize), and Front or Back Pair odds are 1 in 100 ($50 on $1).
Is it worth playing the next Pick 4 – NC draw?
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$0.47, meaning you can expect to lose about 0.47 on average for every ticket. Because Pick 4 – NC has fixed prizes that do not roll over, the expected value stays constant from draw to draw.
How much tax do I pay on Pick 4 – NC winnings?
Eligible US lottery winnings over $5,000 generally have 24% federal withholding. That is a prepayment, not the final tax rate; final liability depends on income and filing circumstances, and the federal marginal rate can reach 37%. State and local taxes can also apply. These are planning assumptions, not individual tax advice.
What is the cash value of the Pick 4 – NC jackpot?
The Pick 4 – NC top prize of $5,000 is paid directly as a lump-sum cash prize (there is no annuity schedule). Federal and state taxes may apply depending on the prize amount and jurisdiction.
What are the Pick 4 – NC odds of winning any prize?
Because each Pick 4 – NC bet type is purchased separately, your hit probability matches the bet type on your slip: 1 in 100 for a Front or Back Pair, 1 in 417 (24-Way Box, $200 prize) for an all-distinct Box play, 1 in 833 (12-Way Box, $400 prize) for a single-repeat Box play, and 1 in 10,000 for an exact Straight match.
When is the next Pick 4 – NC drawing?
The next Pick 4 – NC drawing is scheduled for Sunday, Oct 25. Check the official lottery for the ticket-sales cutoff in your location. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app to track the schedule.
What’s the best Pick 4 – NC strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you. If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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