Take 5 – NY Jackpot Analysis: Odds & Payout Projections
Last updated: October 20, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
This draw offers better-than-typical lottery value, but expected value remains negative.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- -$0.55 Per $1 ticket
The estimated Take 5 – NY jackpot for Wednesday’s draw is $24,432, with a cash option of $24,432 and an estimated $15,392 after federal taxes.
The cash expected value is -$0.55 per $1 ticket before split risk. This draw offers better-than-typical lottery value, but expected value remains negative.
Data & model basis: official Take 5 – NY data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
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Facts, sources & assumptions
Why trust this Take 5 – NY breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Take 5 – NY Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
What this means
Is there a better live option right now?
If this jackpot looks only average, compare it with the other live jackpots before you buy more tickets. Another game may simply look better right now.
Basis: Current jackpot and modeled cash-value EV
What this means
Jackpot odds and split risk
Jackpot odds are 1 in 575,757 per ticket. More tickets in play usually means a better chance that a winning jackpot gets split.
Basis: Projected ticket field · Poisson sharing model · number popularity excluded
Take 5 – NY Payout: Real Value Breakdown, Before and After Taxes
Oct 21, 2026
| Advertised Next Jackpot | $24,432 |
|---|---|
| Est. Net Cash (After Fed + New York Tax) | $12,729 |
| Jackpot Odds | 1 in 575,757 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | -$0.55 per ticket |
| Break-Even Payout Line(Before Taxes) | $343,766 |
Take 5 – NY Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Chart shows how estimated EV changes as the jackpot grows.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Advertised EV (Annuity) | -$0.55 | The “Advertised” value (typically paid over time). |
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | -$0.55 | The actual cash value available right now (before taxes). |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$0.77 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal + 10.9% state tax (New York). |
Note: Includes both federal and state taxes for New York.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 4 number-match categories, multiply the payout by its probability (for example, jackpot divided by 575,757). Multiplier variants belong to the same match category and must be weighted, not counted as additional chances.
2
Sum probability-weighted payouts: We use the jackpot’s published cash value, or the clearly labeled cash estimate when no current cash value is published. Cash EV excludes free-ticket face value; free tickets remain included in overall win odds. Final-tax planning applies the selected rate to cash prizes, not just the jackpot.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $1.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (-$0.55).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (-$0.55) is based on the Cash Value of the jackpot. If we used the advertised annuity, the EV would appear higher (-$0.55), but that ignores the time-value of money. The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$0.77) shown above is the most accurate measure, accounting for the lump-sum reduction and all applicable taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Is it an interesting value? Better-than-typical estimated value
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$0.55, meaning you can expect to lose about 0.55 on average for every ticket.
The jackpot needs to reach approximately $343,766 before the estimated EV (relative to lump-sum and before taxes) crosses $0.00.
Take 5 – NY payout chart
What each Take 5 – NY prize tier pays after taxes
Pick a prize tier to see what usually lands in your account once the cash option, federal and state taxes, and jackpot sharing are priced in.
If your numbers come up 4 Matches · 1 in 3,386.81 per line
Separate advertised prizes, withholding and final-tax planning. Weighted averages are estimates, not your ticket’s payout.
4 Matches pays ~$647 at 1 in 3,386.81 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Take 5 – NY prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (5 Matches) | $24,432 | 1 in 575,757 | 399,084 1,096 yrs at one line per draw |
$399K | 6.1% |
| 4 Matches | ~$647 | 1 in 3,387 | 2,347 6 yrs at one line per draw |
$2,347.21 | 28% |
| 3 Matches | ~$22.50 | 1 in 103 | 71 10 wk at one line per draw |
$70.79 | 32% |
| 2 Matches | Free ticket (not cash) | 1 in 10 | 6 1 wk at one line per draw |
$6.32 | Not cash |
“Coin-flip shot” models independent chances; same-draw line overlap can change the exact probability. It is not the EV break-even threshold. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current advertised amount before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Free tickets are not cash. Amounts marked ~ are pari-mutuel: the median of recently published payouts, not a fixed prize.
For every prize’s payout and odds, see the Take 5 – NY payout charts and how to win. The guide also covers the modeled hit points and what strategies can and cannot change.
Take 5 – NY Next Draw Split Risk & Rollover Context
Take 5 – NY prizes vary by drawing. If no ticket wins the top match category, its prize pool rolls down to eligible lower categories in that drawing; it does not build an ordinary jackpot rollover streak. Use the draw-specific payout table, including the correct midday or evening session, rather than a fixed prize estimate.
Take 5 – NY vs. Powerball: Jackpot Growth Comparison
This chart compares how quickly Take 5 – NY and Powerball jackpots grow between draws over the recent 6-month window, highlighting differences in rollover speed and peak jackpot accumulation.
Log scale active. Selected jackpot peaks differ by at least 10×, so equal vertical steps represent multiplication rather than equal dollar increases.
Chart tracks jackpot growth velocity and resets.
This page keeps the chart focused on the recent 6 months for faster loading. For longer history and broader comparisons, visit the Lottery Jackpots Hub.
Take 5 – NY Numbers Drawn on Oct 20, 2026
Oct 20, 2026
Winning Numbers
Midday
| Advertised Draw Jackpot | $16,609 |
| Est. Net Cash (after fed tax) | $10,464 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Nothing in this draw’s number pattern looks unusually rare for a random result.
Full audit
100/100
Highly Trustworthy • 3,813 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Use the full audit for the historical test.
See the full Take 5 – NY fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your ticket structure, not the draw odds
Every valid Take 5 – NY line remains equally likely. Strategy can organize coverage, reduce overlap, and limit exposure to commonly chosen combinations.
Current audit leader
Cold Numbers
+1.1% recent win-count difference vs. random · QUIET
Recent signals describe past windows; they do not predict the next draw.
See the full Take 5 – NY strategy auditFAQ
How much is the Take 5 – NY jackpot for the next draw on Wednesday?
The estimated Take 5 – NY jackpot for Wednesday, Oct 21, is $24,432.
What are the odds of winning the Take 5 – NY jackpot?
The odds of winning the Take 5 – NY jackpot are 1 in 575,757. Your overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 9.09.
Is the current Take 5 – NY jackpot high enough to be worth playing?
Not yet. The current Take 5 – NY jackpot is $24,432, while the modeled break-even line is about $343,766. On paper the expected value is still negative.
How much tax do I pay on Take 5 – NY winnings?
Eligible US lottery winnings over $5,000 generally have 24% federal withholding. That is a prepayment, not the final tax rate; final liability depends on income and filing circumstances, and the federal marginal rate can reach 37%. State and local taxes can also apply. These are planning assumptions, not individual tax advice.
What is the cash value of the Take 5 – NY jackpot?
The estimated lump-sum cash value of the current Take 5 – NY jackpot is approximately $24,432. That is 100.0% of the advertised annuity value. Federal and state taxes further reduce the take-home amount.
What are the Take 5 – NY odds of winning any prize?
Your overall odds of winning any Take 5 – NY prize are 1 in 9.09, including the two-match free ticket. The jackpot odds are 1 in 575,757. Smaller prize categories have better odds than the jackpot.
When is the next Take 5 – NY drawing?
The next Take 5 – NY drawing is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct 21. Check the official lottery for the ticket-sales cutoff in your location. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app to track the schedule.
What’s the best Take 5 – NY strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you (jackpot above $343,766). If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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