Pick 3 – TX Jackpot Analysis: Odds & Payout Projections
Last updated: October 21, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
This draw is mathematically favorable by our current model.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- +$0.21 Per $1 ticket
- First annuity payment
- $17 First annual payment
- Annuity structure
- 30 level payments Official schedule
The estimated Pick 3 – TX jackpot for Wednesday’s draw is $500, with an estimated cash option of $255 and an estimated $161 after federal taxes. No cash value has been published for this draw, so it is estimated at 51% of the advertised jackpot.
The cash expected value is +$0.21 per $1 ticket before split risk. This draw is mathematically favorable by our current model.
Data & model basis: official Pick 3 – TX data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
draw-day=”2026-10-21″ data-lp-poll-Quick poll: Playing Pick 3 – TX's next draw, or sitting out?
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Facts, sources & assumptions
Why trust this Pick 3 – TX breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Pick 3 – TX Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
What this means
Is there a better live option right now?
If this jackpot looks only average, compare it with the other live jackpots before you buy more tickets. Another game may simply look better right now.
Basis: Current jackpot and modeled cash-value EV
What this means
Jackpot odds and split risk
Jackpot odds are 1 in 1,000 per ticket. More tickets in play usually means a better chance that a winning jackpot gets split.
Basis: Projected ticket field · Poisson sharing model · number popularity excluded
Headline vs cash reality
What this means
How much of the new headline jackpot survives?
The advertised jackpot is $500. The cash value is about $255 before taxes and about $161 after federal taxes. No cash value has been published for this draw, so it is estimated at 51% of the advertised jackpot.
Basis: Current cash option · federal planning rate · state tax excluded
Pick 3 – TX Payout: Real Value Breakdown, Before and After Taxes
Oct 21, 2026
| Advertised Next Jackpot | $500Est. cash value (51% assumption): $255 before taxes |
|---|---|
| Est. Net Cash (After Fed Tax) | $161 |
| Jackpot Odds | 1 in 1,000 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | +$0.21 per ticket |
| Break-Even Payout Line(Before Taxes) | $79 |
Pick 3 – TX Payout Calculator – Lump Sum vs. Annuity
See which payout option finishes ahead using the current Pick 3 – TX amounts. Switch the tax view or open Adjust assumptions to test a different plan.
Current jackpot
Using the latest advertised amount.
After federal tax · 5.00% yearly growth · 30 years
30 scheduled annuity payments. Values shown after 30 years.
Change growth assumptions 5.00% growth, 30 years, 2.50% inflation
How this calculator works
Important modeling notes
Post-tax mode uses the federal withholding baseline stored for this jackpot. Actual take-home proceeds can still differ based on residency, filing status, and claim setup. Annuity tax timing can create advantages or disadvantages depending on the winner’s situation, but that gets complicated quickly. This is a deterministic model, not tax or financial advice. Inflation-adjusted end values use 2.50% average annual inflation to translate the year-30 balances into today’s dollars. That changes purchasing-power framing, not which option leads at the selected end horizon. This model does not include a custom year-by-year inflation schedule, estate planning, trusts, or what happens if a winner dies before the payout stream ends.
Assumes 30 annual payments. Future values are measured at the end of the selected projection period.
Payout schedule formula
level_payment = jackpot / n
payment_t = level_paymentFuture-value formula
FV_annuity = SUM payment_t invested_share (1 + r)^(projection_years - receipt_year_t)Annuity tax timing can create advantages or disadvantages depending on the winner’s situation, but that gets complicated quickly. This is a deterministic model, not tax or financial advice. Return inputs are nominal, and inflation-adjusted ending values translate the selected year-end balances into today’s dollars using the chosen average annual inflation rate.
Pick 3 – TX Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Advertised EV (Annuity) | +$0.46 | The “Advertised” value (typically paid over time). |
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | +$0.21 | Uses an estimated cash value. No cash value has been published for this draw, so it is estimated at 51% of the advertised jackpot. |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$0.23 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal tax. |
Note: State taxes are not included and will further reduce the Net EV depending on where you live.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 3 number-match categories, multiply the payout by its probability (for example, jackpot divided by 1,000). Multiplier variants belong to the same match category and must be weighted, not counted as additional chances.
2
Sum probability-weighted payouts: We use the jackpot’s published cash value, or the clearly labeled cash estimate when no current cash value is published.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $1.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (+$0.21).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (+$0.21) is based on the Cash Value of the jackpot. If we used the advertised annuity, the EV would appear higher (+$0.46), but that ignores the time-value of money. The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$0.23) shown above is the most accurate measure, accounting for the lump-sum reduction and federal taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Is it an interesting value? Yes – the estimated EV appears positive
The current $500 jackpot implies a positive estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) of +$0.21 per ticket.
This is rare and suggests the average return is higher than usual (before taxes and other assumptions), but your odds of winning remain extremely low (1 in 1,000).
Pick 3 – TX payout chart
What each Pick 3 – TX prize tier pays after taxes
Pick a prize tier to see what usually lands in your account once the cash option, federal and state taxes, and jackpot sharing are priced in.
If your numbers come up Box (3-way) · 1 in 333 per line
Separate advertised prizes, withholding and final-tax planning. Weighted averages are estimates, not your ticket’s payout.
Box (3-way) pays $160 at 1 in 333 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Pick 3 – TX prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (Straight) | $255 cash | 1 in 1,000 | 693 2 yrs at one line per draw |
$692.80 | 37% |
| Box (3-way) | $160 | 1 in 333 | 230 33 wk at one line per draw |
$230.47 | 69% |
| Box (6-way) | $80 | 1 in 167 | 115 16 wk at one line per draw |
$115.41 | 69% |
“Coin-flip shot” models independent chances; same-draw line overlap can change the exact probability. It is not the EV break-even threshold. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current cash option before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Free tickets are not cash.
For every prize’s payout and odds, see the Pick 3 – TX payout charts and how to win. The guide also covers the modeled hit points and what strategies can and cannot change.
Pick 3 – TX Next Draw Split Risk & Rollover Context
Pick 3 – TX rolls into the next draw with about $500 on the table
Across the last 3 completed draws, 9 of 9 main numbers landed at 9 or below. That helps explain why birthday-heavy and other common picks can make a shared jackpot more likely when casual play surges.
Pick 3 – TX vs. Powerball: Jackpot Growth Comparison
This chart compares how quickly Pick 3 – TX and Powerball jackpots grow between draws over the recent 6-month window, highlighting differences in rollover speed and peak jackpot accumulation.
Log scale active. Selected jackpot peaks differ by at least 10×, so equal vertical steps represent multiplication rather than equal dollar increases.
Chart tracks jackpot growth velocity and resets.
This page keeps the chart focused on the recent 6 months for faster loading. For longer history and broader comparisons, visit the Lottery Jackpots Hub.
Pick 3 – TX Numbers Drawn Last Night
Oct 21, 2026
Winning Numbers
Evening
Day
Morning
| Advertised Draw Jackpot | $500Est. cash value (51% assumption): $255 before taxes |
| Est. Net Cash (after fed tax) | $161 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Use the full historical audit for a stronger fairness read than one draw can provide.
Full audit
100/100
Highly Trustworthy • 5,000 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Use the full audit for the historical test.
See the full Pick 3 – TX fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your ticket structure, not the draw odds
Every valid Pick 3 – TX line remains equally likely. Strategy can organize coverage, reduce overlap, and limit exposure to commonly chosen combinations.
Current audit leader
No active signal
Open the audit to compare current signals · Monitoring
Recent signals describe past windows; they do not predict the next draw.
See the full Pick 3 – TX strategy auditFAQ
How much is the Pick 3 – TX jackpot for the next draw on Wednesday?
The estimated Pick 3 – TX jackpot for Wednesday, Oct 21, is $500 ($255 estimated cash value; not yet published).
What are the odds of winning the Pick 3 – TX jackpot?
The odds of winning the Pick 3 – TX jackpot are 1 in 1,000. Your overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 25.09.
Is the current Pick 3 – TX jackpot high enough to be worth playing?
Probably yes. The current Pick 3 – TX jackpot is $500, which is above the modeled break-even line near $79. On paper that can put expected value into positive territory, though taxes, split risk, and long odds still matter.
How much tax do I pay on Pick 3 – TX winnings?
Eligible US lottery winnings over $5,000 generally have 24% federal withholding. That is a prepayment, not the final tax rate; final liability depends on income and filing circumstances, and the federal marginal rate can reach 37%. State and local taxes can also apply. These are planning assumptions, not individual tax advice.
What is the cash value of the Pick 3 – TX jackpot?
No cash value has been published for this draw, so it is estimated at 51% of the advertised jackpot. On that basis the Pick 3 – TX lump sum would be roughly $255. The real figure depends on interest rates and can be higher or lower. Federal and state taxes further reduce the take-home amount.
What are the Pick 3 – TX odds of winning any prize?
Your overall odds of winning any Pick 3 – TX prize are 1 in 25.09. The jackpot odds are 1 in 1,000. Smaller prize categories have better odds than the jackpot.
When is the next Pick 3 – TX drawing?
The next Pick 3 – TX drawing is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct 21. Check the official lottery for the ticket-sales cutoff in your location. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app to track the schedule.
What’s the best Pick 3 – TX strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you (jackpot above $79). If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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