Fantasy 5 – FL Jackpot Analysis: Odds & Payout Projections
Last updated: October 12, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
This draw offers better-than-typical lottery value, but expected value remains negative.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- -$0.44 Per $1 ticket
The estimated Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot for Tuesday’s draw is $100,000, with a cash option of $100,000 and an estimated $63,000 after federal taxes.
The cash expected value is -$0.44 per $1 ticket before split risk. This draw offers better-than-typical lottery value, but expected value remains negative.
Data & model basis: official Fantasy 5 – FL data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
Have favorite numbers you play, or a ticket already in hand? Add or choose that line in Lucky Picks, then check and refine its overlap, coverage, strategy fit, and familiar patterns. Refining a line does not change its draw odds.
Facts, sources & assumptions
Why trust this Fantasy 5 – FL breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Fantasy 5 – FL Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
What this means
Is there a better live option right now?
If this jackpot looks only average, compare it with the other live jackpots before you buy more tickets. Another game may simply look better right now.
Basis: Current jackpot and modeled cash-value EV
Per ticket.
Chance the jackpot gets shared if it is hit.
Estimated number of tickets in play for this draw.
What this means
Jackpot odds and split risk
Jackpot odds are 1 in 376,922 per ticket. The chance of having to split the jackpot is about 57.1%, based on roughly 319K tickets in play for this draw. More tickets in play usually means a better chance that the jackpot gets split.
Basis: Projected ticket field · Poisson sharing model · number popularity excluded
Fantasy 5 – FL Payout: Real Value Breakdown, Before and After Taxes
Oct 13, 2026
| Advertised Next Jackpot | $100,000 |
|---|---|
| Est. Net Cash (After Fed + Florida Tax) | $63,000 |
| Jackpot Odds | 1 in 376,922 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | -$0.44 per ticket |
| Break-Even Payout Line(Before Taxes) | $264,242 |
Fantasy 5 – FL Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Chart shows how estimated EV changes as the jackpot grows.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Advertised EV (Annuity) | -$0.44 | The “Advertised” value (typically paid over time). |
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | -$0.44 | The actual cash value available right now (before taxes). |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$0.64 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal + 0.0% state tax (Florida). |
| Jackpot split probability | 57.1% | If your ticket hits the jackpot, this is the modeled chance that at least one other ticket also wins it. |
| Expected jackpot share | 67.4% | The average share of the top prize after accounting for possible sharing with other winning tickets. |
| Projected field size | 319,297 | Estimated base tickets in the field, with a modeled range of 239,474 – 478,948. |
| Cash expected value after sharing | -$0.52 | This is the cash expected value after reducing the jackpot for possible sharing. The effect here is about 8.6 cents, which is small but still worth including in a serious value read. Modeled other jackpot-winning tickets if you hit: 0.85. |
Note: Includes both federal and state taxes for Florida.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 4 number-match categories, multiply the payout by its probability (for example, jackpot divided by 376,922). Multiplier variants belong to the same match category and must be weighted, not counted as additional chances.
2
Sum probability-weighted payouts: We use the jackpot’s published cash value, or the clearly labeled cash estimate when no current cash value is published. Cash EV excludes free-ticket face value; free tickets remain included in overall win odds. Final-tax planning applies the selected rate to cash prizes, not just the jackpot.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $1.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (-$0.44).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (-$0.44) is based on the Cash Value of the jackpot. If we used the advertised annuity, the EV would appear higher (-$0.44), but that ignores the time-value of money. The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$0.64) shown above is the most accurate measure, accounting for the lump-sum reduction and all applicable taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Is it an interesting value? Better-than-typical estimated value
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$0.44, meaning you can expect to lose about 0.44 on average for every ticket.
The jackpot needs to reach approximately $264,242 before the estimated EV (relative to lump-sum and before taxes) crosses $0.00.
Fantasy 5 – FL payout chart
What each Fantasy 5 – FL prize tier pays after taxes
Pick a prize tier to see what usually lands in your account once the cash option, federal and state taxes, and jackpot sharing are priced in.
If your numbers come up 4 Matches · 1 in 2,432.21 per line
Separate advertised prizes, withholding and final-tax planning. Weighted averages are estimates, not your ticket’s payout.
4 Matches pays ~$150 at 1 in 2,432.21 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Fantasy 5 – FL prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (5 Matches) | $100K | 1 in 376,992 | 261,311 718 yrs at one line per draw |
$261K | 38% |
| 4 Matches | ~$150 | 1 in 2,432 | 1,686 5 yrs at one line per draw |
$1,685.53 | 8.9% |
| 3 Matches | ~$11 | 1 in 81 | 56 8 wk at one line per draw |
$55.85 | 20% |
| 2 Matches | Free ticket (not cash) | 1 in 8 | 5 1 wk at one line per draw |
$5.46 | Not cash |
“Coin-flip shot” models independent chances; same-draw line overlap can change the exact probability. It is not the EV break-even threshold. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current advertised amount before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Free tickets are not cash. Amounts marked ~ are pari-mutuel: the median of recently published payouts, not a fixed prize.
For every prize’s payout and odds, see the Fantasy 5 – FL payout charts and how to win. The guide also covers the modeled hit points and what strategies can and cannot change.
Fantasy 5 – FL Next Draw Split Risk & Rollover Context
Fantasy 5 – FL prizes vary by drawing. If no ticket wins the top match category, its prize pool rolls down to eligible lower categories in that drawing; it does not build an ordinary jackpot rollover streak. Use the draw-specific payout table, including the correct midday or evening session, rather than a fixed prize estimate.
Fantasy 5 – FL vs. Benchmark: Jackpot Growth Comparison
This chart compares how quickly Fantasy 5 – FL and Benchmark jackpots grow between draws over the recent 6-month window, highlighting differences in rollover speed and peak jackpot accumulation.
Log scale active. Selected jackpot peaks differ by at least 10×, so equal vertical steps represent multiplication rather than equal dollar increases.
Chart tracks jackpot growth velocity and resets.
This page keeps the chart focused on the recent 6 months for faster loading. For longer history and broader comparisons, visit the Lottery Jackpots Hub.
Fantasy 5 – FL Numbers Drawn Last Night
Oct 12, 2026
Winning Numbers
Midday
| Advertised Draw Jackpot | $51,075 |
| Est. Net Cash (after fed tax) | $32,177 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Nothing in this draw’s number pattern looks unusually rare for a random result.
Full audit
99/100
Highly Trustworthy • 1,216 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Use the full audit for the historical test.
See the full Fantasy 5 – FL fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your ticket structure, not the draw odds
Every valid Fantasy 5 – FL line remains equally likely. Strategy can organize coverage, reduce overlap, and limit exposure to commonly chosen combinations.
Current audit leader
Late Numbers
+1.8% recent win-count difference vs. random · QUIET
Recent signals describe past windows; they do not predict the next draw.
See the full Fantasy 5 – FL strategy auditFAQ
How much is the Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot for the next draw on Tuesday?
The estimated Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot for Tuesday, Oct 13, is $100,000.
What are the odds of winning the Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot?
The odds of winning the Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot are 1 in 376,922. Your overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 7.26.
Is the current Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot high enough to be worth playing?
Not yet. The current Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot is $100,000, while the modeled break-even line is about $264,242. On paper the expected value is still negative.
How likely is it that a Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot win would be split?
The modeled split risk right now is 57.1%. If your ticket hits the jackpot, that means about a 57.1% chance at least one other ticket also wins and shares the top prize, leaving the average winning share near 67% of the jackpot across a projected field of about 319,297 tickets. Split risk affects payout size, not your odds of hitting the numbers.
How much tax do I pay on Fantasy 5 – FL winnings?
Eligible US lottery winnings over $5,000 generally have 24% federal withholding. That is a prepayment, not the final tax rate; final liability depends on income and filing circumstances, and the federal marginal rate can reach 37%. No state lottery-income tax is applied in this jurisdiction model; your residence may create other obligations. These are planning assumptions, not individual tax advice.
What is the cash value of the Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot?
The estimated lump-sum cash value of the current Fantasy 5 – FL jackpot is approximately $100,000. That is 100.0% of the advertised annuity value. Federal and state taxes further reduce the take-home amount.
What are the Fantasy 5 – FL odds of winning any prize?
Your overall odds of winning any Fantasy 5 – FL prize are 1 in 7.26, including the two-match free ticket. The jackpot odds are 1 in 376,922. Smaller prize categories have better odds than the jackpot.
When is the next Fantasy 5 – FL drawing?
The next Fantasy 5 – FL drawing is scheduled for Tuesday, Oct 13. Check the official lottery for the ticket-sales cutoff in your location. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app to track the schedule.
What’s the best Fantasy 5 – FL strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you (jackpot above $264,242). If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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