Jersey Cash 5 Jackpot Analysis: Odds & Payout Projections
Last updated: October 30, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
This draw is a selective entertainment play with negative expected value.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- -$1.48 Per $2 ticket
- Split risk
- 1.4% Lower split risk
The estimated Jersey Cash 5 jackpot for Saturday’s draw is $160,000, with a cash option of $160,000 and an estimated $100,800 after federal taxes.
With 18K estimated tickets in play, there is about a 1.4% chance of splitting the top prize if you win. The cash expected value is -$1.48 per $2 ticket before split risk. This draw is a selective entertainment play with negative expected value.
Data & model basis: official Jersey Cash 5 data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
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Facts, sources & assumptions
Why trust this Jersey Cash 5 breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Jersey Cash 5 Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
What this means
Is there a better live option right now?
If this jackpot looks only average, compare it with the other live jackpots before you buy more tickets. Another game may simply look better right now.
Basis: Current jackpot and modeled cash-value EV
Per ticket.
Chance the jackpot gets shared if it is hit.
Estimated number of tickets in play for this draw.
What this means
Jackpot odds and split risk
Jackpot odds are 1 in 1,221,759 per ticket. The chance of having to split the jackpot is about 1.4%, based on roughly 18K tickets in play for this draw. More tickets in play usually means a better chance that the jackpot gets split.
Basis: Projected ticket field · Poisson sharing model · number popularity excluded
Jersey Cash 5 Payout: Real Value Breakdown, Before and After Taxes
Oct 31, 2026
| Advertised Next Jackpot | $160,000 |
|---|---|
| Est. Net Cash (After Fed + New Jersey Tax) | $83,600 |
| Jackpot Odds | 1 in 1,221,759 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | -$1.48 per ticket |
| Break-Even Payout Line(Before Taxes) | $2M |
Quick poll: What would you do first if you won $150,000?
Jersey Cash 5 Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Chart shows how estimated EV changes as the jackpot grows.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | -$1.48 | Prizes are paid directly in cash (before taxes). |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$1.73 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal + 10.8% state tax (New Jersey). |
| Jackpot split probability | 1.4% | If your ticket hits the jackpot, this is the modeled chance that at least one other ticket also wins it. |
| Expected jackpot share | 99.3% | The average share of the top prize after accounting for possible sharing with other winning tickets. |
| Projected field size | 17,778 | Estimated base tickets in the field, with a modeled range of 13,333 – 26,667. |
| Cash expected value after sharing | -$1.48 | This is the cash expected value after reducing the jackpot for possible sharing. The effect here is about 0.1 cents, which is small but still worth including in a serious value read. Modeled other jackpot-winning tickets if you hit: 0.01. |
Note: Includes both federal and state taxes for New Jersey.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 6 number-match categories, multiply the payout by its probability (for example, jackpot divided by 1,221,759). Multiplier variants belong to the same match category and must be weighted, not counted as additional chances.
2
Sum probability-weighted payouts: We use the jackpot’s published cash value, or the clearly labeled cash estimate when no current cash value is published.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $2.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (-$1.48).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (-$1.48) uses the published cash prizes before taxes (there is no annuity or lump-sum discount). The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$1.73) shown above accounts for all applicable taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Is it an interesting value? ️ Borderline
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$1.48, meaning you can expect to lose about 1.48 on average for every ticket.
The jackpot needs to reach approximately $2M before the estimated EV (relative to lump-sum and before taxes) crosses $0.00.
Jersey Cash 5 payout chart
What each Jersey Cash 5 prize tier pays after taxes
Pick a prize tier to see what usually lands in your account once the cash option, federal and state taxes, and jackpot sharing are priced in.
If your numbers come up 4 of 5 (with Bullseye) · 1 in 7,635.99 per line
Separate advertised prizes, withholding and final-tax planning. Weighted averages are estimates, not your ticket’s payout.
4 of 5 (with Bullseye) pays $500 at 1 in 7,635.99 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Jersey Cash 5 prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (5 of 5 (Jackpot)) | $160K | 1 in 1,221,759 | 846,858 2,327 yrs at one line per draw |
$1.7M | 9.4% |
| 4 of 5 (without Bullseye) | $250 | 1 in 30,544 | 21,171 58 yrs at one line per draw |
$42,342.25 | 0.59% |
| 4 of 5 (with Bullseye) | $500 | 1 in 7,636 | 5,293 15 yrs at one line per draw |
$10,585.04 | 4.7% |
| 3 of 5 (without Bullseye) | $15 | 1 in 392 | 271 39 wk at one line per draw |
$542.16 | 2.8% |
| 3 of 5 (with Bullseye) | $30 | 1 in 261 | 181 26 wk at one line per draw |
$361.21 | 8.3% |
| 2 of 5 (with Bullseye) | $5 | 1 in 31 | 21 3 wk at one line per draw |
$42.16 | 11.9% |
“Coin-flip shot” models independent chances; same-draw line overlap can change the exact probability. It is not the EV break-even threshold. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current advertised amount before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Free tickets are not cash.
For every prize’s payout and odds, see the Jersey Cash 5 payout charts and how to win. The guide also covers the modeled hit points and what strategies can and cannot change.
Jersey Cash 5 Next Draw Split Risk & Rollover Context
Jersey Cash 5 rolls into the next draw with about $160,000 on the table after 2 straight rollovers This rollover step is +6.7% from the last draw.
Projected next-draw field size is about 17,778 tickets, +6.7% versus roughly 16,667 on the last draw, so ticket sales look to be accelerating. That puts jackpot-sharing risk near 1.4% and leaves the modeled winning share around 99% of the top prize on average. This is a payout-quality issue, not an odds change.
Across the last 3 completed draws, 10 of 15 main numbers landed at 31 or below. That helps explain why birthday-heavy and other common picks can make a shared jackpot more likely when casual play surges.
Late is currently the strongest monitoring signal, showing +0.32% recent win-count change versus random across 150 draws and +5.52 quality-adjusted wins per 1,000 picks. We surface that as expected-value and split-risk context only – not as a prediction of the next winning numbers.
Jersey Cash 5 vs. Powerball: Jackpot Growth Comparison
This chart compares how quickly Jersey Cash 5 and Powerball jackpots grow between draws over the recent 6-month window, highlighting differences in rollover speed and peak jackpot accumulation.
Log scale active. Selected jackpot peaks differ by at least 10×, so equal vertical steps represent multiplication rather than equal dollar increases.
Chart tracks jackpot growth velocity and resets.
This page keeps the chart focused on the recent 6 months for faster loading. For longer history and broader comparisons, visit the Lottery Jackpots Hub.
Jersey Cash 5 Numbers Drawn on Oct 30, 2026
Winning Numbers
🎯 BULLSEYE (5th drawn): 26 · XTRA: 3x
XTRA: 3×
| Advertised Draw Jackpot | $150,000 |
| Est. Net Cash (after fed tax) | $94,500 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Nothing in this draw’s number pattern looks unusually rare for a random result.
Full audit
99/100
Highly Trustworthy • 1,092 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Read how our Lottery Fairness Score tests long-run draw history.
See the full Jersey Cash 5 fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your ticket structure, not the draw odds
Every valid Jersey Cash 5 line remains equally likely. Strategy can organize coverage, reduce overlap, and limit exposure to commonly chosen combinations.
Current audit leader
Late Numbers
+0.3% recent position-hit difference vs. baseline · QUIET (no statistically significant advantage — historical variation)
Recent signals describe past windows; they do not predict the next draw.
See the full Jersey Cash 5 strategy auditFAQ
How much is the Jersey Cash 5 jackpot for the next draw on Saturday?
The estimated Jersey Cash 5 jackpot for Saturday, Oct 31, is $160,000.
What are the odds of winning the Jersey Cash 5 jackpot?
The odds of winning the Jersey Cash 5 jackpot are 1 in 1,221,759. Your overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 25.71.
Is the current Jersey Cash 5 jackpot high enough to be worth playing?
Not yet. The current Jersey Cash 5 jackpot is $160,000, while the modeled break-even line is about $2M. On paper the expected value is still negative.
How likely is it that a Jersey Cash 5 jackpot win would be split?
The modeled split risk right now is 1.4%. If your ticket hits the jackpot, that means about a 1.4% chance at least one other ticket also wins and shares the top prize, leaving the average winning share near 99% of the jackpot across a projected field of about 17,778 tickets. Split risk affects payout size, not your odds of hitting the numbers.
How much tax do I pay on Jersey Cash 5 winnings?
Eligible US lottery winnings over $5,000 generally have 24% federal withholding. That is a prepayment, not the final tax rate; final liability depends on income and filing circumstances, and the federal marginal rate can reach 37%. State and local taxes can also apply. These are planning assumptions, not individual tax advice.
What is the cash value of the Jersey Cash 5 jackpot?
The Jersey Cash 5 top prize of $160,000 is paid directly as a lump-sum cash prize (there is no annuity schedule). Federal and state taxes may apply depending on the prize amount and jurisdiction.
What are the Jersey Cash 5 odds of winning any prize?
Your overall odds of winning any Jersey Cash 5 prize are 1 in 25.71. The jackpot odds are 1 in 1,221,759. Smaller prize categories have better odds than the jackpot.
When is the next Jersey Cash 5 drawing?
The next Jersey Cash 5 drawing is scheduled for Saturday, Oct 31. Jersey Cash 5 drawings are Daily at 10:57 p.m. Eastern Time. Ticket sales close at 10:53 p.m. Eastern Time, 4 minutes before the drawing. Check the official lottery for schedule changes. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app to track the schedule.
What’s the best Jersey Cash 5 strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you (jackpot above $2M). If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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