Fantasy 5 – CA Jackpot Analysis, Payout & Calculators
Last updated: September 26, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
At $75,000, Fantasy 5 – CA is above its modeled $451,862.2 pre-tax break-even point, with estimated cash EV of -$0.65 per $1 ticket.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- -$0.65 Per $1 ticket
- Split risk
- 0.6% Lower split risk
- First annuity payment
- $2,500 First annual payment
- Annuity structure
- 30 level payments Official schedule
The estimated Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot for Saturday’s draw is $75,000, with a cash option of $75,000 and an estimated $47,250 after federal taxes.
With 3K estimated tickets in play, there is about a 0.6% chance of splitting the top prize if you win. The cash expected value is -$0.65 per $1 ticket before split risk. This draw offers better-than-typical lottery value, but expected value remains negative.
The modeled break-even jackpot is $451,862.2 pre-tax — the advertised level where a $1 ticket stops being mathematically underwater on a pre-tax cash-value basis. On an After Fed + California Tax basis, break-even moves to $717K.
Data & model basis: official Fantasy 5 – CA data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
Have favorite numbers you play, or a ticket already in hand? Add or choose that line in Lucky Picks, then check and refine its overlap, coverage, strategy fit, and familiar patterns. Refining a line does not change its draw odds.
Facts, sources & assumptions
Why trust this Fantasy 5 – CA breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Fantasy 5 – CA Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
$376,862 short of break-even
Current jackpot vs. the pre-tax break-even threshold
What this means
$75,000 is below the modeled break-even line
On a pre-tax basis, the current jackpot is still about $376,862 short of break-even at $451,862.2. That means this draw is still below the line where the math starts to improve.
Basis: Pre-tax cash EV · base ticket · before jackpot sharing
Per ticket.
Chance the jackpot gets shared if it is hit.
Estimated number of tickets in play for this draw.
What this means
Jackpot odds and split risk
Jackpot odds are 1 in 575,757 per ticket. The chance of having to split the jackpot is about 0.6%, based on roughly 3K tickets in play for this draw. More tickets in play usually means a better chance that the jackpot gets split.
Basis: Projected ticket field · Poisson sharing model · number popularity excluded
Fantasy 5 – CA Payout: Real Value Breakdown, Before and After Taxes
Sep 26, 2026
| Advertised Next Jackpot | $75,000 |
|---|---|
| Est. Net Cash (After Fed + California Tax) | $47,250 |
| Jackpot Odds | 1 in 575,757 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | -$0.65 per ticket |
| Break-Even Payout Line(Before Taxes) | $451,862 |
| Break-Even Payout Line(After Fed + California Tax) | $717K |
Fantasy 5 – CA Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Chart shows how estimated EV changes as the jackpot grows.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Advertised EV (Annuity) | -$0.65 | The “Advertised” value (typically paid over time). |
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | -$0.65 | The actual cash value available right now (before taxes). |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$0.70 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal + 0.0% state tax (California). |
| Jackpot split probability | 0.6% | If your ticket hits the jackpot, this is the modeled chance that at least one other ticket also wins it. |
| Expected jackpot share | 99.7% | The average share of the top prize after accounting for possible sharing with other winning tickets. |
| Projected field size | 3,475 | Estimated base tickets in the field, with a modeled range of 2,606 – 5,211. |
| Cash expected value after sharing | -$0.65 | This is the cash expected value after reducing the jackpot for possible sharing. The effect here is about 0.0 cents, which is small but still worth including in a serious value read. Modeled other jackpot-winning tickets if you hit: 0.01. |
Note: Includes both federal and state taxes for California.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 9 prize tiers, we multiply the prize amount by its odds (e.g., jackpot ÷ 575,757).
2
Sum all prize values: We add up the value of all prizes. Crucially, we use the Cash Value of the jackpot, not the inflated annuity number.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $1.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (-$0.65).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (-$0.65) is based on the Cash Value of the jackpot. If we used the advertised annuity, the EV would appear higher (-$0.65), but that ignores the time-value of money. The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$0.70) shown above is the most accurate measure, accounting for the lump-sum reduction and all applicable taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Is it an interesting value? Better-than-typical estimated value
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$0.65, meaning you can expect to lose about 0.65 on average for every ticket.
The jackpot needs to reach approximately $451,862 before the estimated EV (relative to lump-sum and before taxes) crosses $0.00.
Fantasy 5 – CA prize tier lab
What each Fantasy 5 – CA prize tier pays after taxes
Pick a prize tier to see what usually lands in your account once the cash option, federal and state taxes, and jackpot sharing are priced in.
If your numbers come up 3 Matches · 1 in 103 per line
Advertised prizes are the headline. This is what usually lands in your account.
3 Matches pays $10 at 1 in 103 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Fantasy 5 – CA prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (5 Matches) | $75,000 | 1 in 575,757 | 399,084 1,096 yrs at one line per draw |
$399K | 19% |
| 4 Matches | $400 | 1 in 3,387 | 2,347 6 yrs at one line per draw |
$2,347 | 17% |
| 3 Matches | $10 | 1 in 103 | 71 10 wk at one line per draw |
$71 | 14% |
| 2 Matches | Varies | 1 in 10 | 7 1 wk at one line per draw |
$7 | n/a |
“Coin-flip shot” is the number of $1 base lines that gives a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current advertised amount before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Above 100% means one hit at the coin-flip point pays for the lines it took; below 100% means it does not.
What it takes to hit each tier, how much the small prizes give back while you wait, and what actually helps: How to play and win Fantasy 5 – CA.
Fantasy 5 – CA Next Draw Split Risk & Rollover Context
Fantasy 5 – CA rolls into the next draw with about $75,000 on the table after 2 straight rollovers This rollover step is +1.4% from the last draw.
Projected next-draw field size is about 3,475 tickets, +1.4% versus roughly 3,427 on the last draw, so ticket sales look to be holding roughly steady. That puts jackpot-sharing risk near 0.6% and leaves the modeled winning share around 100% of the top prize on average. This is a payout-quality issue, not an odds change.
Across the last 3 completed draws, 12 of 15 main numbers landed at 31 or below. That helps explain why birthday-heavy and other common picks can make a shared jackpot more likely when casual play surges.
High and Low – Most Overdue is currently the strongest monitoring signal, showing +1.97% recent win-count change versus random across 150 draws and +25.10 quality-adjusted wins per 1,000 picks. We surface that as expected-value and split-risk context only – not as a prediction of the next winning numbers.
Fantasy 5 – CA vs. SuperLotto Plus: Jackpot Growth Comparison
This chart compares how quickly Fantasy 5 – CA and SuperLotto Plus jackpots grow between draws over the recent 6-month window, highlighting differences in rollover speed and peak jackpot accumulation.
Log scale active. Selected jackpot peaks differ by at least 10×, so equal vertical steps represent multiplication rather than equal dollar increases.
Chart tracks jackpot growth velocity and resets.
This page keeps the chart focused on the recent 6 months for faster loading. For longer history and broader comparisons, visit the Lottery Jackpots Hub.
Fantasy 5 – CA Numbers Drawn Last Night
Sep 25, 2026
Winning Numbers
| Advertised Draw Jackpot | $73,972 |
| Est. Net Cash (after fed tax) | $46,602 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Nothing in this draw’s number pattern looks unusually rare for a random result.
Full audit
99/100
Highly Trustworthy • 1,334 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Use the full audit for the historical test.
See the full Fantasy 5 – CA fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your ticket structure, not the draw odds
Every valid Fantasy 5 – CA line remains equally likely. Strategy can organize coverage, reduce overlap, and limit exposure to commonly chosen combinations.
Current audit leader
High and Low – Longest Absent
+2.0% recent win-count difference vs. random · QUIET
Recent signals describe past windows; they do not predict the next draw.
See the full Fantasy 5 – CA strategy auditFAQ
How much is the Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot for the next draw on Saturday?
The estimated Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot for Saturday, Sep 26, is $75,000.
What are the odds of winning the Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot?
The odds of winning the Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot are 1 in 575,757. Your overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 9.09.
Is the current Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot high enough to be worth playing?
Not yet. The current Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot is $75,000, while the modeled break-even line is about $451,862. On paper the expected value is still negative.
How likely is it that a Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot win would be split?
The modeled split risk right now is 0.6%. If your ticket hits the jackpot, that means about a 0.6% chance at least one other ticket also wins and shares the top prize, leaving the average winning share near 100% of the jackpot across a projected field of about 3,475 tickets. Split risk affects payout size, not your odds of hitting the numbers.
How much tax do I pay on Fantasy 5 – CA winnings?
In the US, lottery winnings over $5,000 are subject to a 24% federal tax withholding (often settling at 37% federal liability). State taxes vary by location, ranging from 0% in some states to over 10% in others. Check your local state lottery rules for exact rates.
What is the cash value of the Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot?
The estimated lump-sum cash value of the current Fantasy 5 – CA jackpot is approximately $75,000. Most winners choose the lump sum, which is roughly half the advertised annuity value. Federal and state taxes further reduce the take-home amount.
What are the Fantasy 5 – CA odds of winning any prize?
Your overall odds of winning any Fantasy 5 – CA prize are 1 in 9.09. While the jackpot odds are extremely long at 1 in 575,757, the game offers multiple prize tiers with much better chances of winning smaller cash amounts.
When is the next Fantasy 5 – CA drawing?
The next Fantasy 5 – CA drawing is scheduled for Saturday, Sep 26. Ticket sales typically close 1–2 hours before the draw. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app so you never miss a drawing or a positive EV opportunity.
What’s the best Fantasy 5 – CA strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you (jackpot above $451,862). If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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