Pick-6 – NJ Jackpot Analysis & Payout Calculator
Last updated: October 31, 2026 ET (updates after every new draw)
At $16.1M, Pick-6 – NJ remains below its modeled $41M pre-tax break-even point, with estimated cash EV of -$1.12 per $2 ticket.
From headline to real value
- Cash EV
- -$1.12 Per $2 ticket
- Split risk
- 7% Moderate split risk
- First annuity payment
- $644,000 Paid at claim
- Annuity structure
- 25 level payments Official schedule
The estimated Pick-6 – NJ jackpot for Saturday’s draw is $16.1M, with a cash option of $6.8M and an estimated $4.3M after federal taxes.
With 684K estimated tickets in play, there is about a 7% chance of splitting the top prize if you win. The cash expected value is -$1.12 per $2 ticket before split risk. This draw is a selective entertainment play with negative expected value.
The modeled break-even jackpot is $41M pre-tax — the advertised level where a $2 ticket stops being mathematically underwater on a pre-tax cash-value basis. On an After Fed + New Jersey Tax basis, break-even moves to $81.6M.
Data & model basis: official Pick-6 – NJ data · 2026 tax inputs where applicable · Lucky Picks calculations
Quick poll: Playing Pick-6 – NJ's next draw, or sitting out?
Have favorite numbers you play, or a ticket already in hand? Add or choose that line in Lucky Picks, then check and refine its overlap, coverage, strategy fit, and familiar patterns. Refining a line does not change its draw odds.
Facts, sources & assumptions
Current Pick-6 – NJ facts
- Historical position
- #4 of 6 completed jackpot cycles
- Cash option
- $6.8M before taxes
- 24% federal withholding
- $5.2M paid after withholding
- 37% estimated federal liability
- $4.3M after federal tax
- State take-home range
- $3.6M in New Jersey to $3.6M in New Jersey
- Annuity
- 25 level payments
- Jackpot odds
- 1 in 9,366,819
- Ticket price
- $2
Why trust this Pick-6 – NJ breakdown
Withholding is a prepayment; final tax depends on filing circumstances.
Pick-6 – NJ Jackpot Analysis & Payout Guide
$24.9M short of break-even
Current jackpot vs. the pre-tax break-even threshold
What this means
$16.1M is below the modeled break-even line
On a pre-tax basis, the current jackpot is still about $24.9M short of break-even at $41M. That means this draw is still below the line where the math starts to improve.
Basis: Pre-tax cash EV · base ticket · before jackpot sharing
Per ticket.
Chance the jackpot gets shared if it is hit.
Estimated number of tickets in play for this draw.
What this means
Jackpot odds and split risk
Jackpot odds are 1 in 9,366,819 per ticket. The chance of having to split the jackpot is about 7%, based on roughly 684K tickets in play for this draw. More tickets in play usually means a better chance that the jackpot gets split.
Basis: Projected ticket field · Poisson sharing model · number popularity excluded
Headline vs cash reality
What this means
How much of the new headline jackpot survives?
The advertised jackpot is $16.1M. The cash value is about $6.8M before taxes and about $4.3M after federal taxes.
Basis: Current cash option · federal planning rate · state tax excluded
Pick-6 – NJ Payout: Real Value Breakdown, Before and After Taxes
Oct 31, 2026
| Advertised Next Jackpot | $16.1MCash value: $6.8M before taxes |
|---|---|
| Est. Net Cash (After Fed + New Jersey Tax) | $3.6M |
| Jackpot Odds | 1 in 9,366,819 |
|---|---|
| Fairness Signal | 🛡️ High Confidence |
| Expected Value | -$1.12 per ticket |
| Break-Even Payout Line(Before Taxes) | $41M |
| Break-Even Payout Line(After Fed + New Jersey Tax) | $81.6M |
Pick-6 – NJ Payout Calculator – Lump Sum vs. Annuity
See which payout option finishes ahead using the current Pick-6 – NJ amounts. Switch the tax view or open Adjust assumptions to test a different plan.
Current jackpot
Using the latest advertised amount.
After federal + New Jersey tax · 5.00% yearly growth · 24 years
25 scheduled annuity payments. Values shown after 24 years.
Change growth assumptions 5.00% growth, 24 years, 2.50% inflation
How this calculator works
Important modeling notes
Post-tax mode uses the current federal plus New Jersey state tax baseline stored for this lottery. Actual withholding and final tax liability can still vary. Annuity tax timing can create advantages or disadvantages depending on the winner’s situation, but that gets complicated quickly. This is a deterministic model, not tax or financial advice. Inflation-adjusted end values use 2.50% average annual inflation to translate the year-24 balances into today’s dollars. That changes purchasing-power framing, not which option leads at the selected end horizon. This model does not include a custom year-by-year inflation schedule, estate planning, trusts, or what happens if a winner dies before the payout stream ends.
Assumes 1 immediate payment plus 24 annual payments after that. Future values are measured at the end of the selected projection period.
Payout schedule formula
level_payment = jackpot / n
payment_t = level_paymentFuture-value formula
FV_annuity = SUM payment_t invested_share (1 + r)^(projection_years - t)
t = 0 is the immediate payment.Annuity tax timing can create advantages or disadvantages depending on the winner’s situation, but that gets complicated quickly. This is a deterministic model, not tax or financial advice. Return inputs are nominal, and inflation-adjusted ending values translate the selected year-end balances into today’s dollars using the chosen average annual inflation rate.
Quick poll: What would you do first if you won $15.7M?
Pick-6 – NJ Expected Value (EV), Jackpot Thresholds & Break-Even Projections
The expected value (EV) captures the real cost-adjusted return of a lottery ticket. The following shows how the estimated EV of a single ticket changes as the jackpot grows. Cash-value and tax adjustments are applied where relevant.
Chart shows how estimated EV changes as the jackpot grows.
Detailed EV and split-risk breakdown
| Metric | Value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Advertised EV (Annuity) | -$0.13 | The “Advertised” value (typically paid over time). |
| Cash EV (Before Taxes) | -$1.12 | The actual cash value available right now (before taxes). |
| Net EV (After Taxes) | -$1.54 | The actual bottom line. After 37% federal + 10.8% state tax (New Jersey). |
| Jackpot split probability | 7% | If your ticket hits the jackpot, this is the modeled chance that at least one other ticket also wins it. |
| Expected jackpot share | 96.4% | The average share of the top prize after accounting for possible sharing with other winning tickets. |
| Projected field size | 683,652 | Estimated base tickets in the field, with a modeled range of 512,739 – 1,025,478. |
| Cash expected value after sharing | -$1.15 | This is the cash expected value after reducing the jackpot for possible sharing. The effect here is about 2.6 cents, which is small but still worth including in a serious value read. Modeled other jackpot-winning tickets if you hit: 0.07. |
Note: Includes both federal and state taxes for New Jersey.
How Estimated Expected Value (EV) Is Calculated
The expected value shown here is an estimate based on publicly available rules and historical payout behavior. It is designed to show order-of-magnitude value, not predict exact outcomes for any single draw. Actual results may vary due to changes in lottery rules, taxes, and other factors such as prize splitting.
1
Calculate prize probabilities: For each of the 4 number-match categories, multiply the payout by its probability (for example, jackpot divided by 9,366,819). Multiplier variants belong to the same match category and must be weighted, not counted as additional chances.
2
Sum probability-weighted payouts: We use the jackpot’s published cash value, or the clearly labeled cash estimate when no current cash value is published.
3
Subtract ticket cost: We subtract the $2.00 ticket price to get the Cash Value EV (Before Taxes) (-$1.12).
Caveats: The headline estimated EV (-$1.12) is based on the Cash Value of the jackpot. If we used the advertised annuity, the EV would appear higher (-$0.13), but that ignores the time-value of money. The Net EV (After Taxes) (-$1.54) shown above is the most accurate measure, accounting for the lump-sum reduction and all applicable taxes. Variable prize tiers are modeled conservatively using historical payout distributions. Actual payouts may differ from draw to draw.
Is it an interesting value? ️ Borderline
The current estimated Cash Expected Value (pre-tax) is -$1.12, meaning you can expect to lose about 1.12 on average for every ticket.
The jackpot needs to reach approximately $41M before the estimated EV (relative to lump-sum and before taxes) crosses $0.00.
Pick-6 – NJ payout chart
What each Pick-6 – NJ prize tier pays after taxes
Pick a prize tier to see what usually lands in your account once the cash option, federal and state taxes, and jackpot sharing are priced in.
If your numbers come up 5 of 6 (with built-in XTRA) · 1 in 39,028.41 per line
Separate advertised prizes, withholding and final-tax planning. Weighted averages are estimates, not your ticket’s payout.
5 of 6 (with built-in XTRA) pays ~$1,662 at 1 in 39,028.41 per line.
Choose another tier to update this payout view.
What each Pick-6 – NJ prize costs to chase
The 50% modeled hit point is how many independent lines give a 50% chance of at least one hit at that tier. Prize coverage compares one prize with what those lines cost.
| Prize tier | Prize | Odds per line | Lines for a coin-flip shot | Cost of those lines | Prize covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (6 of 6 (Jackpot)) | $6.8M cash | 1 in 9,366,819 | 6,492,584 41,619 yrs at one line per draw |
$13M | 52.3% |
| 5 of 6 (with built-in XTRA) | ~$1,662 | 1 in 39,028 | 27,052 173 yrs at one line per draw |
$54,104.18 | 3.1% |
| 4 of 6 (with built-in XTRA) | ~$30 | 1 in 801 | 555 4 yrs at one line per draw |
$1,109.15 | 2.7% |
| 3 of 6 (with built-in XTRA) | $3 | 1 in 47 | 33 11 wk at one line per draw |
$65.02 | 4.6% |
“Coin-flip shot” models independent chances; same-draw line overlap can change the exact probability. It is not the EV break-even threshold. “Prize covers” compares one prize (jackpot: current cash option before taxes and sharing) with what those lines cost. Free tickets are not cash. Amounts marked ~ are pari-mutuel: the median of recently published payouts, not a fixed prize.
For every prize’s payout and odds, see the Pick-6 – NJ payout charts and how to win. The guide also covers the modeled hit points and what strategies can and cannot change.
Pick-6 – NJ Next Draw Split Risk & Rollover Context
Pick-6 – NJ rolls into the next draw with about $16.1M on the table after 3 straight rollovers This rollover step is +2.5% from the last draw.
Projected next-draw field size is about 683,652 tickets, +2.5% versus roughly 666,667 on the last draw, so ticket sales look to be holding roughly steady. That puts jackpot-sharing risk near 7% and leaves the modeled winning share around 96% of the top prize on average. This is a payout-quality issue, not an odds change.
Across the last 3 completed draws, 10 of 18 main numbers landed at 31 or below. That helps explain why birthday-heavy and other common picks can make a shared jackpot more likely when casual play surges.
Even and Odd – Least Frequent is currently the strongest monitoring signal, showing +0.45% recent win-count change versus random across 125 draws and +7.60 quality-adjusted wins per 1,000 picks. We surface that as expected-value and split-risk context only – not as a prediction of the next winning numbers.
Pick-6 – NJ vs. Powerball: Jackpot Growth Comparison
This chart compares how quickly Pick-6 – NJ and Powerball jackpots grow between draws over the recent 6-month window, highlighting differences in rollover speed and peak jackpot accumulation.
Log scale active. Selected jackpot peaks differ by at least 10×, so equal vertical steps represent multiplication rather than equal dollar increases.
Chart tracks jackpot growth velocity and resets.
This page keeps the chart focused on the recent 6 months for faster loading. For longer history and broader comparisons, visit the Lottery Jackpots Hub.
Pick-6 – NJ Numbers Drawn on Oct 29, 2026
Winning Numbers
Double Play (+$1 separate drawing): 3 – 10 – 15 – 19 – 43 – 44
| Advertised Draw Jackpot | $15,700,000Cash value: $6,628,000 before taxes |
| Est. Net Cash (after fed tax) | $4,175,640 |
Was This Draw Fair?
Quick answer
No obvious red flag
The broader audit for this lottery still looks consistent with a fair random process. Nothing in this draw’s number pattern looks unusually rare for a random result.
Full audit
100/100
Highly Trustworthy • 486 draws analyzed
One draw never proves fairness on its own. Read how our Lottery Fairness Score tests long-run draw history.
See the full Pick-6 – NJ fairness auditWhat Can Strategy Actually Change?
Quick answer
Your ticket structure, not the draw odds
Every valid Pick-6 – NJ line remains equally likely. Strategy can organize coverage, reduce overlap, and limit exposure to commonly chosen combinations.
Current audit leader
Even and Odd – Least Frequent
+0.5% recent position-hit difference vs. baseline · QUIET (no statistically significant advantage — historical variation)
Recent signals describe past windows; they do not predict the next draw.
See the full Pick-6 – NJ strategy auditFAQ
How much is the Pick-6 – NJ jackpot for the next draw on Saturday?
The estimated Pick-6 – NJ jackpot for Saturday, Oct 31, is $16 Million ($7M Cash Value).
What are the odds of winning the Pick-6 – NJ jackpot?
The odds of winning the Pick-6 – NJ jackpot are 1 in 9,366,819. Your overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 44.34.
Is the current Pick-6 – NJ jackpot high enough to be worth playing?
Not yet. The current Pick-6 – NJ jackpot is $16 Million, while the modeled break-even line is about $41M. On paper the expected value is still negative.
How likely is it that a Pick-6 – NJ jackpot win would be split?
The modeled split risk right now is 7%. If your ticket hits the jackpot, that means about a 7% chance at least one other ticket also wins and shares the top prize, leaving the average winning share near 96% of the jackpot across a projected field of about 683,652 tickets. Split risk affects payout size, not your odds of hitting the numbers.
How much tax do I pay on Pick-6 – NJ winnings?
Eligible US lottery winnings over $5,000 generally have 24% federal withholding. That is a prepayment, not the final tax rate; final liability depends on income and filing circumstances, and the federal marginal rate can reach 37%. State and local taxes can also apply. These are planning assumptions, not individual tax advice.
What is the cash value of the Pick-6 – NJ jackpot?
The estimated lump-sum cash value of the current Pick-6 – NJ jackpot is approximately $7 Million. That is 42.2% of the advertised annuity value. Federal and state taxes further reduce the take-home amount.
What are the Pick-6 – NJ odds of winning any prize?
Your overall odds of winning any Pick-6 – NJ prize are 1 in 44.34. The jackpot odds are 1 in 9,366,819. Smaller prize categories have better odds than the jackpot.
When is the next Pick-6 – NJ drawing?
The next Pick-6 – NJ drawing is scheduled for Saturday, Oct 31. Pick-6 – NJ drawings are Monday, Thursday and Saturday at 10:57 p.m. Eastern Time. Ticket sales close at 10:53 p.m. Eastern Time, 4 minutes before the drawing. Check the official lottery for schedule changes. Set up alerts in the Lucky Picks app to track the schedule.
What’s the best Pick-6 – NJ strategy?
There isn’t a trick that changes the odds of a single ticket. The sensible approach is to treat lottery as entertainment, set a budget you can afford, and only play when the estimated expected value feels good enough to you (jackpot above $41M). If you buy multiple lines, buying more numbers is the only proven way to improve coverage. Don’t chase losses or spend money you need elsewhere.
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